South America isn’t front and center on the U.S. political radar, so it’s difficult to say how things might change under the Obama administration. However, we can make some educated guesses.
First, expect a thawing of tensions between the U.S. and countries like Venezuela and Bolivia as the simple result of Bush out and Obama in. We’ve seen some of this already–Hugo Chavez congratulated Obama on his “historic” win and said it was time for a new era in the countries’ relationship, one marked by a “constructive bilateral agenda.” Evo Morales struck a similar chord, remarking on a visit to Columbia University that he hoped relations would improve with Obama in office, noting that they both rose to power from traditionally marginalized communities. (Of course, it would be foolish to expect fundamental change overnight. Divisions remain deep-seated, as evidenced by U.S. diplomat Krishna Urs’s decision to walk out on a Jan. 22 speech delivered by Morales, and Chavez’s comment–in response to criticism from Obama–that the new president has the “same stench” as George W. Bush.)
Second, Obama could face some tough decisions if UNASUR proceeds as planned. Forrest Hylton, historian and author of Evil Hour in Colombia, suggests that the Bush Administration used Colombia as an “Israel in South America”–as a foothold in a region that was otherwise anti-Bush. But if UNASUR produces genuine regional integration, Hylton says the coalition could rein in Colombia. And if the U.S. loses Colombia as a firmly cooperative ally, it may be forced to engage the broader South American community. Nevertheless, Hylton doubts Obama will deviate much from the Bush tack, a generally conservative, militaristic approach. And that seems like a decent bet. At this point, it makes little political sense to shake things up–U.S. voters aren’t clamoring for change in South America like they are in, say, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Stay tuned . . .
-N. Fromherz
Like this:
Be the first to like this post.
