Category Archives: South American Economy

Nacionaligitis

The nationalization bug is spreading in the Western hemisphere.  What started out as a strange virus in Venezuela now threatens the shores of the United States (see Citigroup) and, just recently, leaped the Rio de la Plata into Argentina.  

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner announced yesterday that Argentina will nationalize a military-aircraft factory owned by Lockheed Martin.  (Read the full article here: http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=329847&CategoryId=10718.)  Of course, even those who see nationalization as a threat will probably find this none too troubling.  Because the state is traditionally thought to have a monopoly on force, the nationalization of military-related industry doesn’t pose a major challenge to the free-market paradigm.

Personally, I don’t see nationalization as an unqualified evil (see below).  I certainly don’t see it as a plague.  But for those who do, this one looks pretty contagious. 

-N. Fromherz

P.S. –  I should probably explain my position on nationalization in more precise terms.  I’ll be brief.  If government wants to dabble in business, I think that’s fine.  But if government nationalizes an entire industry, thereby creating a monopoly, I think that’s troublesome.  Government should be able to compete, not win by default.  So, too, is it problematic when government abuses its authority to give itself a leg-up on the competition.  There are exceptions to these rules of thumb, but I see them as just that–rules of thumb, standards that serve as a starting point for thinking about questions of nationalization.

The Unintended Benefits of Nationalizing Citigroup

The U.S. Treasury Department announced today that it would increase its stake in Citigroup, the nation’s banking giant struggling to find its pulse, from 8% to 36%.  See http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/28/business/28deal.html?_r=1&hp.  That’s not a majority share, of course, but it amounts to effective control–effective nationalization. 

Nationalization of industry (banks, healthcare, what have you) is considered by most to be a hallmark of socialism, still an unpopular concept here in the United States.  In terms of this nation’s policy towards South America, movements to nationalize industry by our neighbors to the south almost invariably lead to frosty relations.  Take Venezuela and Bolivia.  When they nationalized their oil and gas industries, the drift widened markedly.  

It stands to reason that as the U.S. nationalizes its own banks–or at least one, very large bank–it will be less likely to criticize nationalization abroad.  This can only help relations between the U.S. and countries like Bolivia and Venezuela.  Incremental improvement, perhaps, but improvement nonetheless.

-N. Fromherz

P.S.–I’m not saying I support the Citigroup move; that’s a whole different debate.  But if it’s going to happen, we might as well find a silver lining.

Dry as a Bone

As if the global economic crisis weren’t bad enough, Argentina has the additional burden of struggling through its worst drought since the 1930s.  Cattle carcasses litter the normally fertile pampas, home to Argentina’s world-famous beef industry.  Wheat, corn, and soy farmers are having an equally tough go of it. 

President Kirchner is not in an enviable position.  Already grappling with rising unemployment and double-digit inflation, Kirchner now faces an expected loss of $5.5 billion in state revenues from the agriculture and livestock industries. 

-N. Fromherz

Hat tip:   The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/21/world/americas/21argentina.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)

“Sorry, We’re Closed”

That’s the message being sent to customers of Stanford Bank SA, the Venezuelan arm of Texas billionaire R. Allen Stanford’s banking empire.  The Venezuelan government seized the bank yesterday to stop a run on deposits, and said it would immediately sell the institution and guarantee the remaining savings of the roughly 15,000 Venezuelan clients.  Stanford customers were similarly turned away in a half-dozen other countries where Stanford assets have been frozen pending a massive fraud investigation.  The SEC charged Mr. Stanford on Tuesday with perpetrating an $8-billion fraud by baiting investors with promises of “improbable and unsubstantiated” returns on investments.

This will be an interesting story to follow from an international law perspective.  Clearly, the U.S. is not the only nation with an interest in this case.

-N. Fromherz

Hat tip: Miami Herald (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/story/911505.html)

Iran Not Alone in Pursuing Greater Ties with South America

China’s Vice Premier and Vice President are set to visit a number of countries in Latin America–including Argentina, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and Brazil–in an effort to expand trade.  In contrast to Iran, however, China’s interest in the region seems more a matter of economics, as opposed to ideology or political alliance.  Bilateral trade between China and Latin America rose to $100 billion in 2007. 

For more on the impending visit, see http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7878159.stm.

-N. Fromherz

The Economic Crisis Moves South

A sobering report from the United Nations Development Program warns poverity in Latin America could rise by as much as 15%. 

Summary courtesy of the BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7876169.stm

-N. Fromherz